Mexico Trucker Online

MEXICO CITY — About 40 million Mexicans head to the polls today to choose a president in a down-to-the-wire race that could result in this nation joining Latin America’s political left.

However it turns out, the election amounts to a referendum on leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party, who was running slightly ahead in some polls of Felipe Calderón of the ruling National Action Party.

Considered a long shot is Roberto Madrazo, of the flailing Institutional Revolutionary Party.

The vote comes against a backdrop of political division and social unrest not seen in years.

Wildcat strikes over work conditions, urban peasant clashes with riot police and drug-cartel violence in which police have been decapitated underscore calls for change.

“The whole justice system is bad,” said María Isabel Miranda, whose son was kidnapped and murdered by a gang led by a corrupt cop.

Others say despite the violence, the government is more open than ever, the economy is stable and social programs have delivered cement floors for homes, computers for classrooms and mortgages for families.

Mexico’s internationally respected electoral institute is expected to deliver a clean vote.

To combat fraud, officials are deploying observers and guarding ballots. Voters’ thumbs will be dipped in ink.

To reduce rowdiness, bars are closed for the weekend.

And to avoid the appearance of meddling, outgoing President Vicente Fox won’t address the nation until vote totals are released.

If the margin is close, officials likely will hold off projections from partial totals.

A close election is complicated by the possibility of the loser not conceding.

Most Mexicans don’t trust the government to honestly tally ballots and, if incited, could protest, block highways and carry out work stoppages.

Today’s election could render López Obrador a footnote or give him the chance to save the masses and become a boogeyman to the wealthy, whose privileges he threatens.

“His proposals, like giving away money, will take us nowhere,” said Jorge Aguilar, 38, an insurance agent, as he walked along posh Avenida Masaryk, where everything from Ferraris to diamond watches are sold.

“A lot of investment will flee the country,” he said, although some economists disagree.

Standing in López Obrador’s way is Calderón, of Fox’s party, known as the PAN.

The Harvard-educated conservative promises to keep Mexico on a course of economic stability and push reforms that he says will lead to more and better-paying jobs.

Neither candidate has directly bad-mouthed Washington, but both say they want to lead a strong, independent government.

They’ve also said they want to see more Mexicans legally working in the United States, but create jobs so people won’t go north as immigrants.

Time is running out for people like Porfirio Espinosa Rojano, a down-on-his luck farmer who lives outside Mexico City and doesn’t even have enough money to buy seed to plant his football-field-size plot of land.

“I do not know what I am going do. Let’s see if the next president brings us more work,” said Espinosa, 48. “If not, I am going to go to the United States.”

He wouldn’t say whom he supports.

If Calderón defeats López Obrador, the former Mexico City mayor isn’t expected to go quietly.

He is a master at mobilizing the masses — he summoned 200,000 to his campaign-ending rally — and it would surprise few if he challenged the vote in the courts and led massive marches.

Win or lose, this election is about López Obrador.

He is portrayed by the PAN as “a danger to Mexico,” but supporters believe he is the solution for poverty and corruption.

“Our society is strongly divided; there is a left and right like we have never seen before, but it is not like the left of (Cuban leader Fidel) Castro or (Venezuelan leader) Hugo Chávez,” said leftist intellectual Carlos Monsiváis.

“We must not be defeated by pacifism and conformity; we need to try an alternative, and to me that alternative is López Obrador,” Monsiváis said.

But Jorge Castañeda, who was Fox’s foreign minister, calls López Obrador dangerous and said he had no respect for laws that get in his way.

“He is ideologically quite similar to Chávez and the Cuban government,” Castañeda said. “He is someone who will do a lot of harm to U.S.-Mexican relations.”

There is a consensus on one thing: López Obrador is the candidate most likely to challenge Washington. He’s also more likely to forge ties with a Latin America increasingly moving to the left.

To different extremes, Chile, Brazil, Bolivia and Venezuela are leading the movement for the poor.

“Behind closed doors, the United States is somewhat concerned about” a López Obrador victory, said Pamela Starr, a Latin America analyst.

“Clearly, the United States would prefer somebody like Felipe Calderón. … López Obrador is somewhat an unknown commodity for the United States,” she said.

Calderón said he will demand respect from Washington, but he is seen as less likely than López Obrador to deepen the divide with the Bush administration.

For some families, a president fighting for the poor could have a lasting effect.

As mayor of Mexico City, where he governed with high approval ratings until resigning to campaign, López Obrador started pension-like programs for the elderly, disabled and single mothers.

He used his daily 6 a.m. news conferences as a springboard to bolster his national profile in preparation for a presidential run, and was admired for having an economy car and modest apartment.

He is, however, known for paranoid tendencies: His sons don’t have girlfriends and he has said he believes his phones are tapped.

As president, critics fear he would use his powers to manipulate Mexico’s weak justice system.

Starr calls such concerns exaggerated, as López Obrador promises fiscal discipline.

“From the perspective of the elite, they are rightfully concerned, because López Obrador will try to dramatically reduce their historic and economic privileges in the country,” said Starr, adding that he’d make them pay taxes and halt corporate monopolies.

That’s a stark contrast to Calderón, who promises to broaden Mexico’s tax base without scaring off investment, which he insists is key to improving life for the poor.

Calderón is seen as a safe bet for those who support democratic and economic reforms envisioned by Fox, and aims to bolster Mexico’s global competitiveness and leadership role in Latin America.

While most Mexicans might not trust institutions — from courts to police to the presidency — there is a feeling here that their presidential vote will really count for only the second time in modern history.

In 2000, Mexicans from across the political spectrum came together to elect Fox, who defeated the candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled for 71 years.

Before that, presidential elections were seen as a rubber stamp on the presidential tradition of handpicking a successor.

Although López Obrador is running first in most polls and Calderón a close second, some observers have suggested Madrazo still has a very outside shot.

Local offices are still the PRI’s strong point. The party governs 17 of Mexico’s 32 states and 70 percent of its municipalities.

As for López Obrador, he had dropped in the polls after abrasively criticizing rivals and likening Fox to a squawking bird and telling him to shut up.

In recent months, he tried to go from in-your-face angry to cute-and-cuddly by enlisting a smiling cartoon likeness of himself and the phrase “Smile, we’re going to win.”

But what if they don’t?

“I think the biggest danger is that one candidate or the other is not going to concede defeat,” said Jephraim Gundzik, a California-based international risk analyst.

“The situation is already unstable, and it could destabilize severely in the event that protests erupt around the election,” he said. “In my mind, it’s a powder keg. I don’t think people have really grasped the situation that’s unfolding.”