Mexico Trucker Online

Roberto Madrazo’s presidential bid in Mexico has been relegated to third place in the polls since official campaigning started, and a comeback even at this early stage seems difficult.

The candidate of the Alliance for Mexico — a coalition formed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, and the Green Ecological Party of Mexico, or PVEM — probably faces a more adverse scenario than any of his PRI predecessors.

Madrazo is an accomplished politician. He has represented his native state of Tabasco in Congress a couple times. Later, he was elected governor of the same state. Then, Madrazo became president of his party, a position he left to run in the primaries for his party’s presidential nomination.

Despite Madrazo’s brilliant career, the polls in Mexico have not been kind to his campaign. According to a poll conducted in mid-February by Consulta Mitofsky for the largest broadcasting company in Mexico, Grupo Televisa, Madrazo’s candidacy is losing ground.

In the poll, the PRI has the highest negative rating, at about 35 percent, and the highest rejection rate, close to 36 percent. Rejection rates for the National Action Party and Democratic Revolutionary Party are 20 percent and 18 percent, respectively.

Madrazo had the lowest popularity of the three major candidates in this poll. He’s the candidate with the highest level of negative opinion and rejection rate, at about 40 percent for both categories. The likelihood of people voting for Madrazo is only 27 percent — the lowest of the three major candidates.

In contrast, Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s negative opinion is only about 9 percent — the lowest of all candidates — and rejection of him is only 15 percent. The likelihood of people voting for López Obrador’s coalition is about 49 percent — the highest of all the candidates. Madrazo’s distance from López Obrador increased from 10 points to 12.

The main reason for Madrazo’s high level of rejection in this poll was the image of his party and the perception of his own corruption. So the poor image of the PRI definitely plays a role in Madrazo’s low numbers in the polls.

However, there are more reasons for Madrazo’s difficulties. One is the turbulent PRI primary election. Madrazo practically won by default when the other serious contender dropped out amid a corruption investigation. The investigation concerning Arturo Montiel’s assets is not over and continues to haunt Madrazo’s presidential bid.

Additionally, Madrazo and the PRI’s No. 2 official, Elba Esther Gordillo, have quarreled, possibly creating a divisive effect within the party. Roberto Campa Cifrián, a very close friend of Gordillo, left the PRI last year to become the presidential candidate for a newly formed party only two months later. He probably will have some support from members of the National Education Workers Union, or SNTE, which Gordillo formerly led.

Then, the scandal that surrounds Mario Marín, the governor of the state of Puebla, could be greatly damaging to Madrazo. Marín has found himself associated with Kamel Nacif — a businessman possibly linked to a pedophile ring. A conversation between Nacif and Marín in which they negotiate how to incarcerate a journalist in Mexico has been covered extensively by the media. Many have been asking for the resignation of the Puebla governor. Madrazo’s political advisers made a great mistake by not distancing the candidate right away from that situation; the slow response cannot be good for Madrazo.

The debates have become essential in Madrazo’s presidential ambitions, and his team seems to understand this very well. Madrazo has constantly attacked López Obrador’s decision to participate in only one debate.

Although his candidacy is not dead, Madrazo’s consistent third place in the polls confirms his clear disadvantage.