Mexico Trucker Online

MEXICO CITY — Adding to the drama of the presidential election — a high stakes battle that has seen massive government ballot fraud, an assassination and, most recently, a ruling party knocked from power after 70 years — is the first chance in for Mexicans living abroad to vote.

The millions of possible votes could dramatically affect the outcome next year, but whether they’ll materialize, and which candidate they’ll favor, remains a mystery.

Top election officials said Friday they expect most eligible expatriates to wait until the last minute to register. The officials expressed hope that voters abroad would be able to educate themselves about their choices despite laws preventing the appearance of candidates or distribution of campaign messages outside Mexico.

“It is our first experience with votes from abroad. We are going to learn,” said Luis Carlos Ugalde Ramírez, head of Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute, known as IFE.

Mexicans who are registered voters and living abroad have until Jan. 15 to request to vote by letting the Mexican government know where they live.

How uncharted are these waters?

The first voter application received by the Mexican government surprised officials. It didn’t come from the United States, with its geographic proximity and large Mexican immigrant populations. It was from Burgos, Spain.

The vote abroad, recently approved by the Mexican government in recognition of the many immigrants living outside Mexico and the economic force they represent, comes as Mexico experiments with democracy.

Mexican President Vicente Fox can’t seek re-election. An unprecedented coalition of voters put him in office in 2000.

But the July 2 election is expected to be the first in which each of the nation’s three major political parties has a viable chance of taking office.

How many expatriates are eligible to vote is uncertain.

The most commonly referenced figure is about 11 million, with the largest concentrations in the United States. About 4 million of those are registered to vote.

“We are constantly receiving voting requests,” said Patricio Ballados Villagómez, who is IFE’s director for voting abroad. “Like in any country, we expect people to wait to the last minute.”

Applications to vote abroad are available at Mexican consulates and from community groups not affiliated with any party or candidate.

Though happy that millions of Mexicans like himself will finally have a chance to vote from abroad, Gerardo Escamilla, who lives in San Antonio, said he will still opt for what he considers the safest route.

He said he plans to make the five-hour drive from San Antonio to his hometown of Sabinas Hidalgo, in the border state of Nuevo León, to vote.

Sure, it would be easier to drop a ballot in the mail, and he’s lucky to have that option, he said — but he is not convinced the system will work.

“I am still pessimistic about it,” said Escamilla, president of the expatriate Club Nuevo León in San Antonio. “I do not think the votes from abroad will be handled correctly and honestly.”

As he sees it, corruption is still entrenched in Mexico’s electoral system. He wouldn’t be surprised if mailed-in votes were changed to favor the Institutional Revolutionary Party, known as the PRI, which held power for decades until it lost the presidency to Fox.

This year’s exercise will serve as a learning tool for the next presidential election in 2012, Escamilla said. Maybe by then, he said, he’ll be convinced to vote from San Antonio.

Many others, from Chicago to Miami, will have no choice but to trust the system.

Voters outside Mexico may face hurdles learning campaign platforms and sizing up candidates, who are strictly forbidden from appearances outside Mexico, even through surrogates.

Former Mexico City mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the frontrunner in polls although not yet the official candidate of his Democratic Revolution Party, called off a Mexican independence day visit to Los Angeles over concerns it would break the law.

Ugalde, the IFE official, said the law was clear that campaign visits are forbidden, as is running advertisements in newspapers or on TV or radio.

Parties are forbidden to distribute campaign information, and if a person with no connection to a campaign were to buy air time to plug a candidate, the party would face sanctions, Ugalde said.

“We cannot sanction John Smith in Chicago, but the party is responsible for its supporters,” he said.

Another potential challenge arises with the internet, as a web page can be set up in Mexico, but seen worldwide.