Mexico Trucker Online

GUADALAJARA, Mexico — The contenders in today’s election for governor of Mexico’s largest state could be the cast from Hollywood’s latest comic book-inspired movie.

One candidate is a woman with a mysterious alter ego whose real name most people in Mexico can barely pronounce or spell. Another is a man who has cast himself as “The Ugly.” Then there is the “Golden Boy” — a hit with the ladies, who, polls suggest, is the favorite to win the election.

Even though Enrique Peña Nieto, 38, of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, leads polls by margins of 16 to 20 points going into today’s vote, pollsters, pundits and political scientists across the country are paying close attention to election results in the state of Mexico, which shares the same name as the nation.

With anywhere from 8 million to 12 million registered voters, the state of Mexico election is the most important poll between now and July 2006’s presidential vote. Results will give a clear indication of what the country’s three major political parties will do — or should do — once the presidential race is officially on, say analysts.

A PRI victory will undoubtedly boost the state’s outgoing PRI governor, Arturo Montiel, who is currently battling party president Roberto Madrazo and others for the party nomination.

Perhaps this is why Peña’s propaganda was aired regularly on television stations in major cities, including Mexico City and Guadalajara — which is about 250 miles from Toluca, the capital of the state of Mexico.

“It’s clear that Montiel wants to be seen and sell the triumph of Peña Nieto as his big triumph en route to the presidential candidacy,” said Javier Hurtado, a political scientist with the University of Guadalajara.

“Montiel is going to … squeeze as much juice out of this as possible,” he said.

In a campaign where platforms were of little importance, Peña’s advertising budget has become the central issue of the election, at least for his competitors.

The Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, claims Peña has spent about $331 million pesos (more than $30 million dollars), more than 50 percent above the 216-million-peso legal limit for campaigns.

Advertising is the key to Peña’s huge lead in the polls, say analysts.

When campaigning began earlier this year, he was unknown by many voters in the state of Mexico and polls showed he trailed National Action Party, or PAN, candidate Ruben Mendoza.

“The PRI decided … ‘To hell with it, we’ll just spend our way to the top. If the guy isn’t known then we’ll get him known,’” said Federico Estevez, a Mexico City political scientist.

If Peña wins, he said, “That’ll show … that you can spend an unknown (candidate) into a winning position.”

Less aggressive advertising, a lack of charisma and a go-nowhere campaign slogan sunk Mendoza, 44. The former mayor of a city in the state of Mexico and federal congressman tried to counter-attack Peña’s pretty-boy image by announcing, “I’m ugly, but I know how to govern.”

“That was a mistake,” said Manuel Quijano, another Mexico City political scientist.

Though Mendoza started with a slight lead on Peña in March, according to a Reforma newspaper poll, he had sunk from 38 percent to 26 percent of voter support by June. Another poll, by El Universal newspaper, gave him 30 percent support in June, still well behind Peña.

Yeidckol Polevnsky Gurwitz is the PRD candidate. She made scandalous headlines, including “PRD Candidate was born four times,” when Reforma reported in February that she had multiple birth certificates and an incorrect birth date on her voter registration identification.

Her legal name was actually Citlali del Carmen Ibañez Camacho and was changed by her mother when she became pregnant at 12 years of age, said Polevnsky, now 47. But she only had her name legally changed after coming under media fire this year.

By June, however, the PRD campaign has become less about Polevnsky than Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the PRD mayor of Mexico City and leading contender for the presidency in 2006.

Lopez Obrador was the central figure of Plevnsky’s campaign. The basis of her platform was to implement the mayor’s immensely popular practice of giving a monthly stipend of about $65 to the elderly, disabled and single mothers.

Voter turnout in favor of the PRD, which only obtained 22 percent of the vote in 1999’s governor election, might indicate how well voters nationwide are receiving Lopez Obrador’s populist platform. The PRD is a fractured, disorganized political party with little support in most of the country.

Polls give Polevnsky between 24 and 28 percent of the vote.

“If she comes out well, meaning a better than expected second place but also above historic levels of the vote for that party, the PRD, they are going to think that they have a good thing. .. that they’ll be able to bank on Lopez Obrador’s consolidated image and appeal without having to spend a lot of money,” Estevez said.

Lopez Obrador has maintained a 10-plus points advantage in nationwide polls for the presidency for more than a year.

Even though the state of Mexico has voted PRI in most elections since 1999, it turned in favor of President Vicente Fox in 2000 — showing that Mexican voters, which overwhelmingly supported the PRI in local and state elections last year, are willing to vote outside party affiliation for president.

In light of Lopez Obrador’s continuing dominance of the polls, the PRI and the PAN are expected to spend enough to fund a Hollywood blockbuster once their presidential candidates are confirmed later this year.

“I hope that doesn’t happen,” said UNAM’s Quijano. “Because when democracy becomes expensive, it becomes very unattractive for the citizens.”